Hung Parliament: how the next 10 days could pan out

Political analysis, Westminster
"The day after the General Election can be very intense for public affairs practitioners". Well I said it, so here's what I can do to help. This is what we know about how the next 10 days will pan out with further information on the coming months. Friday 9 June: negotiations to form a government. “Caretaker principle” gives Theresa May the opportunity to try and form a government first. That may be as a minority with help from other parties as needed known as a “supply and confidence” arrangement, or a formal coalition, most likely with the DUP. Corbyn can simultaneously also negotiate with parties to see if he can form a government. The threshold both parties will need to meet is 326 to stand a chance of winning a vote…
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Brexit, the General Election, and Parliamentary Process [update].

All entries, Political analysis, Strategic thinking, Westminster
In March I published a guide to how the official Brexit process will mesh with the work Government and Parliament must do to ensure that EU law has been replaced or incorporated by March 2019. I've now updated the update I provided in April, when the General Election was announced, to take into account recent announcements and commentary from relevant parties. The documents aim to bring together everything we know or can assume about the timetable, including estimates of when the Great Repeal Bill will go through its various stages in Parliament, when consultations will take place, and when secondary legislation will be laid before Parliament. This is important to know - if organisations do not know what to expect, they may miss an opportunity to scrutinise and respond to, or simply plan…
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How quickly must you act once the General Election result is announced?

Political analysis, Westminster
The day after the General Election can be very intense for public affairs practitioners. Both professional pride and the demands of our organisations or clients, require us to interpret the significance of the results, what the impact will be, and what they need to do to respond effectively. But sometimes when we rush to make a judgement we can miss something – a factor which, when considered fully, could add depth and sophistication to our analysis, particularly with the benefit of a little more sleep. I therefore thought it might be helpful to set out how long you really have. What exactly is the window between the result being announced, and the new government and/or parliament being ready to engage with you on matters of domestic significance (see end of…
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Brexit, the General Election and the Parliamentary Process

Political analysis, Westminster
A few weeks ago I published a guide to how the official Brexit process will mesh with the work Government and Parliament must do to ensure that EU law has been replaced or incorporated by March 2019. I've now updated it to take into account the General Election and the impact that will have (the timing is pretty good in terms of the negotiations but it will further limit time available to scrutinise key legislation such as the Great Reform Bill). There are a few new dates for your diary: Queen's Speech likely w/c 19 June Select Committee Chairs, including for the Committee for Exiting the European Union, likely to be elected w/c 16 July If we're lucky Select Committee members will be appointed before the Commons rises for the…
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The timetable for Brexit and the Parliamentary Process

Political analysis, Westminster
Building on last week's articles I wanted to provide some clarity as to how the official Brexit process will mesh with the work Government and Parliament must do to ensure that EU law has been replaced or incorporated by March 2019. This document brings together everything we know or can assume about the timetable, including estimates of when the Great Repeal Bill will go through its various stages in Parliament, when consultations will take place, and when secondary legislation will be laid before Parliament. This is important to know - if organisations do not know what to expect, they may miss an opportunity to scrutinise and respond to, or simply plan for, proposed changes. This will further weaken the legislative process - civil servants drafting the legislation will not receive…
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Three possible dates for an early General Election: 8 May, 22 and 29 June???

Political analysis, Westminster
I went down a bit of a rabbit hole this week. Want to join me? It started with a rather enjoyable blog by John Rowland - ‘After NICS: are we heading for another General Election?’. At first, I just wanted to know if it would be feasible to call an early General Election and how the Government could go about it. I concluded it was possible, if messy. This time, I wanted to know if it was practical in terms of delivering Brexit - an early General Election could deliver a strong majority but it could also mean the loss of up to two months working time for both Government and Parliament. Is this manageable? To form a view I’ve looked at: What we know regarding the current timetable for Brexit,…
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What Cameron can learn from FTSE 100 CEOs

Career development, Effective working, Westminster
The prime minister can't be complacent and has to trust and engage his MPs - much like big business bosses. David Cameron’s second term as prime minister will bring new challenges, many of which are familiar to FTSE 100 chief executives. First, past performance is not an indication of future results. When the FTSE 100 celebrated its 30th birthday last year only 30 companies remained from the original index. Only 19 had never dropped out. David Cameron needs to learn that lesson. The two-party political system is dead: Labour and the Conservatives scraped just 67% of the vote, the Liberal Democrats were all but destroyed, UKIP secured the third-largest vote share, the SNP are the third-largest party and Labour have been thrown into a period of navel-gazing. Cameron cannot assume…
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Seeking to change legislation? Tips from the Whips

All entries, Westminster
One of the main jobs of the Opposition Whips is to help frontbench teams scrutinise and oppose legislation. These are just six of the lessons I learned from my time in the Whips Office and a taste of what we'll cover on the workshop on Friday 22nd April. 1. Politics will determine pace When working out your strategy and how long you have to act, you need to assess if there are any factors that could lead to the Bill being pushed through faster than normal (where normal is 9 to 12 months). A faster pace should be expected if the Bill is considered essential to the Government’s overall programme, if the measures need to be in place for a particular deadline, if it has a strong Cabinet sponsor with a firm agenda, if…
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